OLYMPIA – Washington’s projected transportation revenue collections in the current biennium (2025–27) decreased by around $36 million (-0.4%) from the February 2026 forecast, according to estimates released today by the Washington State Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. Combined with a revenue forecast drop of $130 million (-1.2%) in the 2027–29 biennium, this brings the total decrease over the period to $166 million since the previous forecast.

Since the June 2025 forecast, which included revenue changes from the 2025 legislative session, projected revenue is down $244 million for 2025–27, and down $361 million for 2027–29. Over the 10-year forecast horizon, the latest forecast projects $2.92 billion less revenue than the June 2025 forecast, a decrease of 6%.

The changes in the forecast in the current biennium are primarily the result of a decline in expected revenue from the motor vehicle fuel tax (commonly known as the gas tax), registration fees, and rental car tax, according to the Forecast Council.

June 2026 Forecast Summary ($ Millions) 
Biennium  June 2026 Forecast  Forecast Change  Feb. 2026 Forecast  % Change 
2025–27 (current)  $8,706  -$36 

 

 $8,741 

 

 -0.41% 
2027–29  $10,617  -$130 

 

 $10,747 

 

 -1.21% 
2029–31  $10,004  -$269  $10,273  -2.62% 
Total  $29,327  –$435  $29,761  -1.46% 

Full details of the forecast are available on the Forecast Council’s website.

“We are seeing continued declines in revenue through 2035, due to ongoing volatility in global fuel prices, declining fuel consumption, and decreased revenue in other areas like fees,” said the Office of Financial Management Director K.D. Chapman-See. “This forecast continues a trend we’ve been seeing for a while. Revenue for the transportation budget is steadily decreasing as demand for gas and other fuels is lower – something made more complex given the changes in the global situation since February. This downward trend, coupled with rising costs across the board, will add to the pressures on the transportation budget as we head into the next biennium.”

About Washington’s transportation revenue

Washington’s transportation revenue is derived from various taxes, fees, permits, tolls, and other sources:

  • Gasoline fuel taxes represent the largest share of revenue sources included in the forecast, accounting for 31% of the total this biennium. Collectively, fuel taxes contribute approximately 39.5% of all revenues.
  • Revenues from licenses, permits, and fees comprise the second-largest share, at 25%.
  • 8.3% of revenues in the forecast come from Climate Commitment Act emissions auctions as part of its cap-and-invest program, requiring large emitters to buy allowances to cover their greenhouse gas pollution.
  • The remaining 27.3% is projected to come from ferry fares, toll revenues, driver-related revenues, transfers, and other transportation-related sources.

What’s next

  • The next forecast for transportation revenue is scheduled for Sept. 25, 2026.
  • Transportation revenue review meetings are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the ERFC website.

The Washington State Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (TERFC) is responsible for forecasting transportation revenue in Washington state. The council is composed of members from the House and Senate Transportation Committees, the state treasurer, the director of the Office of Financial Management, and the director of the Department of Licensing.

Forecasts are prepared four times a year by agency staff at the State Patrol and Departments of Licensing and Transportation, before being combined with forecasts prepared by Economic and Revenue Forecast Council staff. This final version of the forecast is submitted to the TERFC for review and approval.

The Office of Financial Management provides vital information, fiscal services and policy support that the governor, Legislature and state agencies need to serve the people of Washington.

Press Contact:
Hayden Mackley
Hayden.Mackley@ofm.wa.gov
(360) 638-2780