What is the revenue forecast?

Four times each year – in June, September, November, and either February (of even numbered years like 2026) or March (in odd numbered years) – the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) releases projections for how much revenue Washington state will receive in upcoming years for both the operating budget and the transportation budget. This forecasted revenue, compared to projected expenditures, inform how much lawmakers can spend on government services and operations.

The ERFC is an independent, nonpartisan agency that is not part of the Executive or Legislative branches of government. The council is comprised of legislators from both parties in the state House and Senate as well as representatives from the Executive Branch and the State Treasurer.

How the revenue forecasts relate to the state budget

We have three separate budgets in Washington state:

  • The operating budget is the primary state budget, covering expenses for the majority of government services and operations, including K-12 and higher education, health care, human services, corrections, natural resources and more.
  • The transportation budget provides funding for our roads, bridges, ferries and public transportation.
  • The capital budget provides funding for construction and maintenance of physical assets of state government like buildings, utilities, parks infrastructure and more.

Two of the forecasts are particularly key when it comes to the operating and transportation budgets: The November revenue forecasts are used to write the governor’s proposed budgets, which are released in December; the February or March forecasts are used to inform the final legislative budgets.

Want to learn more about the budget development process? A guide to the Washington state budget process can be found on the Office of Financial Management’s website.

June 2026 forecast summary

The June 2026 revenue and transportation forecasts both add to the existing anticipated shortfall for the coming 2027-29 biennium.

For transportation, the changes in the forecast in the current biennium are primarily the result of a decline in expected revenue from the motor vehicle fuel tax (commonly known as the gas tax), registration fees and rental car tax. Ongoing volatility in global fuel prices and long-term declining fuel consumption are key drivers of the reduction in gas tax revenue, which is also the largest source of revenue in the transportation budget. Learn more in the June transportation revenue forecast press release.

For the general revenue forecast, the changes are primarily due to lower levels of personal income and weaker employment growth, coupled with persistent inflation and the impacts of global conflicts. Learn more in the June revenue forecast press release.

The recording of the June meetings and meeting materials, including a detailed summary of the changes for both forecasts, can be found on the ERFC website.

What’s next

The next forecasts for both transportation and revenue are expected Sept. 25, 2026. Meetings of the council are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the ERFC website.