Projected state revenue through 2029 down by $903 million
Moderately slower growth in national and Washington economies leads to 0.6% drop in forecast
OLYMPIA – Washington’s projected Near General Fund revenue collections through 2029 decreased by around $903 million from the June 2025 forecast, according to estimates released today by the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
The changes in the forecast are primarily the result of a weaker taxable sales forecast for retail and construction, lower state agency revenues, and a reduction in projected real estate excise tax returns, according to the ERFC.
The forecast is comprised of revenue estimates for the current biennium (2025–27) which began July 1, 2025, and the next biennium (2027–29). It also includes a small adjustment for the 2023-25 biennium that ended on June 30.
|
Biennium |
Forecast revenue |
Change from June forecast |
% change |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2023–25 |
$67.12B |
-$13M |
0.0% |
|
2025–27 (current) |
$74.34B |
-$412M |
-0.6% |
|
2027–29 |
$79.54B |
-$477M |
-0.6% |
|
Total |
|
-$903M |
|
Projected collections for the 2025–27 state budget are now $74.3 billion, down about $412 million since the June forecast.
The forecast revenue for the 2027–29 biennium is around $79.5 billion, which is $477 million lower than projections in June.
Quotes
“The September forecast continues to expect slower growth in the near-term reflecting a slowing national economy and leading to reduced Washington state revenues from what was expected in June,” said Dave Reich, forecast council executive director.
“Given the ongoing uncertainty in the economy and around federal funding, OFM continues to carefully monitor the state’s financial outlook,” said K.D. Chapman-See, director of the Office of Financial Management. “We’ve been preparing for the possibility of slowing revenue growth, and today’s forecast will inform our work as we help develop Governor Ferguson’s supplemental budget proposal.”
Why the revenue forecast matters
The forecasts for Near General Fund revenue collections signal the availability of resources for state services. State law requires a budget that is balanced over four years. The Near General Fund accounts for most of that state operating budget.
A guide to the Washington state budget process can be found on the OFM website.
What’s next
- The transportation revenue forecast will take place on September 26, 2025, and will be available on the ERFC website.
- The next forecast for Near General Fund revenue is scheduled for November 18, 2025. Revenue review meetings are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the ERFC website.
About the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council:
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council supports statewide goals by accurately forecasting economic activity and state tax revenue for Washington state. ERFC is comprised of both legislative and executive members and the State Treasurer. Four times a year the organization adopts a bipartisan revenue forecast that is then used to build the state operating and transportation budgets. The ERFC is also charged with providing the state budget outlook to increase transparency and to promote state government financial stability.
About the Office of Financial Management
The Office of Financial Management provides vital information, fiscal services and policy support that the governor, Legislature and state agencies need to serve the people of Washington.
