OLYMPIA – Washington’s projected transportation revenue collections through 2029 decreased by around $144 million from the June 2025 forecast, according to estimates released today by the Washington State Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Combined with an increase in expected revenue in the June forecast, the latest projection means that the state will bring in about $61 million more in transportation revenue than was expected when the Legislature passed 2025-27 transportation budget in April.

The changes in the forecast are primarily the result of gas consumption falling faster than previously projected. This is partially offset by higher-than-expected toll-related revenue, and increased ferry revenues reflecting recent fare increases. A rise in license, permit and fee revenues due to an upsurge in vehicle purchases was likely driven by anticipation of tariffs, according to the council.

The forecast is comprised of revenue estimates for the current biennium (2025–27) which began on July 1, and the next biennium (2027–29). It also includes an adjustment for the 2023-25 biennium that ended on June 30.

Sept 2025 Forecast Summary ($ Millions)

Biennium

June 2025 Forecast

Forecast Change

Sept 2025 Forecast

% Change
2023-2025

$8,093

+$22

$8,114

+0.3%
2025-2027 (current)

$8,950

-$41

$8,909

-0.5%
2027-2029

$10,978

-$125

$10,853

-1.1%
Total

$28,021

– $144

$27,876

-0.5%

 

Full details of the forecast are available on the forecast council’s website.

About Washington’s transportation revenue

Washington’s transportation revenue is derived from various taxes, fees, permits, tolls, and other sources:

  • Gasoline fuel taxes represent the largest share of revenue sources included in the forecast, accounting for 28.7% of the total. Collectively, fuel taxes contribute approximately 36.4% of all revenues.
  • Revenues from licenses, permits, and fees comprise the second-largest share, at 22.5%.
  • 10% of revenues in the forecast come from Climate Commitment Act emissions auctions as part of its cap-and-invest program, requiring large emitters to buy allowances to cover their greenhouse gas pollution. CCA revenues dedicated to transportation were included in the forecast for the first time in June.
  • The remaining 31.1% is projected to come from ferry fares, toll revenues, driver-related revenues, transfers, and other transportation-related sources.

What’s next

  • The next forecast for transportation revenue is scheduled for November 14, 2025. Transportation revenue review meetings are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the ERFC website.

About us

The Washington State Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (TERFC) is responsible for forecasting transportation revenue in Washington state. The council is composed of members from the House and Senate Transportation Committees, the state treasurer, the director of the Office of Financial Management, and the director of the Department of Licensing.

Forecasts are prepared four times a year by agency staff at the State Patrol and Departments of Licensing and Transportation, before being combined with forecasts prepared by Economic and Revenue Forecast Council staff. This final version of the forecast is submitted to the TERFC for review and approval.

The Office of Financial Management provides vital information, fiscal services and policy support that the governor, Legislature and state agencies need to serve the people of Washington.