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Medical Assistance Expenditure Forecast

Forecast purpose

The Medical Assistance Expenditure Forecast helps the state estimate medical services provided through Medicaid (Apple Health). To create the forecast, information is provided by the Caseload Forecast Council and OFM’s official accounting system.

The forecast is used by both the governor and the Legislature to inform the budget for Health Care Authority. The forecast is also used for financial analyses and tracking expenditures.

The forecast is produced in February and October each year.

See a visual representation of the forecast

Workgroup purpose

The Medical Assistance Expenditure Forecast Workgroup (MAEFW) oversees the preparation and approval of forecast.

Workgroup members review financial data, caseloads, primary trends, Federal Medicaid Assistance Percentages, and step adjustments in response to legal, regulatory, or other significant changes.

Staff from the Health Care Research Center in the OFM Forecasting and Research Division coordinate the development and approval of the forecast.

The workgroup consists of staff from OFM, Health Care Authority, Senate and House fiscal analysts, and the Office of the State Actuary (as needed).

Charter purpose

The Medical Assistance Expenditure Forecast charter outlines members roles and responsibilities, describes guidelines for how the forecast is developed, and provides suggestions for continuous improvement.

The charter was developed in 2022 with input from members of the MAEFW. The charter has five sections detailed below.

View the charter project summary

Sections of the MAEFW Charter: MAEFW Summary (Sec 1 of Charter) (top level) from here, MAEFW Workgroup and Forecast Purpose (Sec 2 of Charter), MAEFW Member rolls and responsibilities (Sec 3 of Charter), MAEFW Rules of Engagement (Sec 4 of Charter), and MAEFW Quality Assurance Mechanisms branch out. From section 4, MAEFW norms and ground rules, MAEFW process map, Action item tracking, Prioritizing inquiries and requests process, Comparing prior forecasts against expenditures and MAEFW Quality Assurance Mechanisms (Sec 5 of Charter) branch out.