What is the caseload forecast?

Three times each year – in February, June and November – the Caseload Forecast Council (CFC) releases estimates of the demand for many state programs and services in Washington state. Services represented in the forecast span across state government, from programs for youth and children, to public assistance, long-term care, medical assistance and affordable health care, education, and corrections.

Council staff create the forecast by collecting the latest data from state agencies, applying statistical and demographic projections, and factoring in policy and legislative changes. The council is comprised of bipartisan legislators from the state House and Senate as well as representatives from the Executive Branch.

How the caseload forecast relates to the state budget

The caseload forecast is one of several important factors that help us understand the pressures on the state budget. Essentially, this forecasts the change in number of Washingtonians who use many critical state services and programs that are funded by the state budget. The council adopts official forecasts that become the basis of the governor’s budget proposal and used by the Legislature in the development of the state operating budget.

Want to learn more about the budget development process? A guide to the Washington state budget process can be found on the Office of Financial Management’s website.

June 2026 forecast summary

The June 2026 caseload forecast is a slight reduction for the 2025-27 biennium compared to the forecast from February 2026. The Office of Financial Management estimates that caseload changes and related adjustments will save about $40 million in the current 2025-27 biennium. We also expect demand for many of the programs and areas represented in the caseload forecast to continue to increase in coming years, adding further pressure on the state budget. The governor’s 2027-29 biennial budget proposal will be prepared based on the November 2026 caseload forecast.

The recording of the June meeting and meeting materials, including a detailed summary of the changes, can be found on the CFC website.

What’s next

The next caseload forecast is expected Nov. 12, 2026. This forecast will be used to develop the governor’s budget proposal, which comes out in December. Meetings of the council are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the CFC website.