Legislative changes boost state revenue forecast despite economic headwinds
OLYMPIA – Washington’s projected Near General Fund revenue collections through 2029 increased by around $8 billion from the March 2025 forecast, according to estimates released today by the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
The changes in the forecast are primarily the result of increases associated with 2025 legislative changes, partially offset by a weaker economic outlook that reduces the forecast for some revenues, according to the forecast council. Those anticipated economic changes reduce the forecast by around $721 million through 2029, and these are factored into the $8 billion overall increase.
The forecast is comprised of revenue estimates for the current biennium (2023–25) which ends June 30, 2025, the next biennium (2025–27), and the subsequent biennium (2027–29).
Biennium |
Forecast revenue |
Non-economic changes from March forecast |
Economic changes from March forecast |
Overall change from March forecast |
% change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023–25 (current) |
$67.14B |
$285M |
$407M |
$692M |
+1.0% |
2025–27 |
$74.76B |
$4,294M |
-$490M |
$3,804M |
+5.4% |
2027–29 |
$80.01B |
$4,228M |
-$638M |
$3,590M |
+4.7% |
Total |
|
$8,807M |
-$721M |
$8,086M |
|
Projected collections for the 2023–25 state budget increased from the March forecast by around $692 million to $67.14 billion.
This forecast also estimates revenue for the next biennium (2025–27) at around $74.76 billion, an increase of $3.8 billion from the March forecast.
The forecast revenue for the 2027–29 biennium is increased by around $3.6 billion, to $80 billion.
Quotes
“The changes in the Washington State revenue forecast reflect increases due to legislative changes made during the 2025 legislative session that will increase state revenues, and revenue reductions due to a weaker economic outlook,” said Dave Reich, forecast council executive director. “Overall, the legislative changes are larger, and the state revenue forecast is increased for the 2025–27 and 2027–29 biennia. The revised economic forecast calls for slower employment and personal income growth and reduced residential construction, which reduces the forecast for revenues such as sales taxes and business and occupancy taxes.”
“While the Legislature took steps to close the state’s budget shortfall, it’s clear that we face ongoing uncertainty in the economy and federal funding,” said K.D. Chapman-See, director of the Office of Financial Management. “That’s why, in our instructions to agencies for the supplemental budget, we’ve asked them to continue to look for efficiencies, savings or reductions in non-essential services and programs.”
Why the revenue forecast matters
The forecasts for Near General Fund revenue collections signal the availability of resources for state services. State law requires a budget that is balanced over four years. The Near General Fund accounts for most of that state operating budget.
A guide to the Washington state budget process can be found on the OFM website.
What’s next
- The transportation revenue forecast will take place on June 25, 2025, and will be available on the ERFC website.
- The 2025-27 biennium will begin on July 1, 2025.
- The next forecast for Near General Fund revenue is scheduled for September 23, 2025. Revenue review meetings are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the ERFC website.
About the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council: The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council supports statewide goals by accurately forecasting economic activity and state tax revenue for Washington state. ERFC is comprised of both legislative and executive members and the State Treasurer. Four times a year the organization adopts a bipartisan revenue forecast that is then used to build the state operating and transportation budgets. The ERFC is also charged with providing the state budget outlook to increase transparency and to promote state government financial stability.
About the Office of Financial Management: OFM provides vital information, fiscal services and policy support that the governor, Legislature and state agencies need to serve the people of Washington.