The 2012 Washington Input-Output Model

Released February 11, 2021

This model was developed by Dr. Fanny B. Roberts, Forecasting and Research Division, Office of Financial Management and Dr. William Beyers, University of Washington Geography Professor. The authors are grateful to Marc Baldwin and Jim Schmidt, Office of Financial Management, for the encouragement and support throughout the 2012 model study period. The authors also want to thank William Baker, Jr., Steve Cleverdon, Dick Conway, Hart Hodges, Jeff Mitchell, Pete van Moorsel and Erik Whitaker, who reviewed the report and helped validate estimates contained in this model. Dr. Roberts served as the project coordinator.

The Washington Input-Output Study

Note: Links to individual sections and tables are below.

This I-O model represents a new estimate of the structure of the Washington economy. The model is largely based on the structure of the 2007 model. It was constructed using other benchmark information to create the new I-O model.

Section 1: The Washington Input-Output Tables PDF
The state I-O table provides a detailed and complete picture of the state’s economic structure, including interindustry linkages, and the economy’s dependence on U.S. and international markets and sources of inputs. Section 1 describes the 2012 table, and uses a highly aggregated version of the model to describe its structure. It also provides summarized comparisons of exports and imports over the history of the Washington Input-Output models.

Section 2: The 2012 Washington Input-Output Table: Methodology and Data PDF
The 2012 Washington Input-Output Model interindustry structure was based on the input-structure of the 2007 model. It is the ninth model of the structure of the state economy. Values for sectoral output were largely based on the 2012 U.S. Economic Census, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates of imports and exports were largely based on survey data from the 2007 model. Adjustments were made to balance values to total sales and purchases values largely derived from the Economic Census. Transfers were made of sales/purchases values in certain sectors, such as shipbuilding (Puget Sound Naval Shipyard transferred from federal government) and the U.S. postal service (transferred from federal government to Other Transportation Services).

Section 3: The Washington Input-Output Tables for Impact Analysis PDF
The input-output table provides estimates of the interdependence of industrial sectors in the state economy. It reports the distribution of sales and purchases of each sector in the state economy. It reports business sales to industrial sectors and to final demand categories (households, investors, and governments) located in Washington state, as well as to markets outside Washington state (exports to other parts of the U.S., to foreign countries, and to the federal government). The table also identifies purchases made by sectors from Washington industries, payments of labor income and other value added, and purchases made out-of-state in U.S. and foreign markets.

The input-output table can be used to build a model that traces out the circular flows associated with these purchases and sales relationships. The input-output model can be formulated so that it can be used as an analytical tool allowing estimation of ripple effects on the state economy as a result of these interdependencies. Three spreadsheets are provided that assist users in conducting economic impact analysis with this model – two for simple analysis and another for complex analysis.

Simple Analysis. If you are modelling an impact scenario that uses sectors with an input structure like that contained in the transactions matrix, you can use these models. You need to enter data as instructed in this spreadsheet to get impact results. Two versions of this model are available. The Type-I model captures the impacts of interindustry linkages in the Washington economy, while the Type II model also captures the impacts of labor income and personal consumption expenditures made in the Washington economy.

Complex Analysis. If you are modelling an impact scenario that departs from the basic structure contained in the transactions matrix, you can specify the input structure of the scenario you are modelling, along with direct sales, direct employment, and direct labor income for this scenario in the complex model formulation. You can follow instructions in this spreadsheet to get impact results. This spreadsheet utilizes the Type II model to compute impacts.

Section 4: The Input-Output Impact Multipliers PDF
The estimated ripple effects on the state economy resulting from an external change can be summarized into the “multiplier” concept. I-O models can be used to estimate various types of multipliers. They simply show, given a specified economic change, the total impact on the state economy. This impact can be depicted in several ways, and Section 4 reports several estimates of multipliers for quick reference. In this section, employment, income, and output multipliers are reported based on the Type II model

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Tuesday, January 3, 2023
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